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Nabucco: The fool pays twice

in Ankara today an agreement to build the Nabucco pipeline has been signed that will bring Erdas from the Caspian region via Turkey and the Balkans to Central Europe. The stated purpose of the pipeline is to "reduce dependence on Russia" which, by gas from other sources and are imported by the Russian Federation. While the European media stupid happily celebrate that Russia defeated cheat "a was, no one will really notice the goal, which is shot with the funds paying tax flock. Despite the enthusiasm of storms in the European media circus Nabucco will be a high probability of stillbirth, should The pipeline will be built at all ever. What was being celebrated, the obligation to costs, the profit remains as murky as before.

The problems begin with the simplest question: "Where will the gas?". In the Caspian region for this purpose are only three states in question have significant gas reserves: Iran, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. The original idea of Nabucco in 2002, when the project was not as politicized was, for even the gain from the sale of Iranian gas to Europe. But then came the Iran Ahmadinejad to power, and made the country verpönnt in the West, especially in the U.S., even an unofficial veto have to European actions. The Iranian nuclear program and recent actions against the opposition can be eliminated to Iran for political reasons as an option for Nabucco.

Turkmenistan, the second richest country in natural gas in the region is, by his dictatorial establishment ago but much better than Iran, but has no direct problems with the West, which accordingly also like away looks to the Stone Age's dictatorship in the country. The President of Turkmenistan toying with the euphonious name Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedow also with Europe as a trading partner and makes merry promises ... However, not only in Europe but in all directions : China, Russia, India and Pakistan. Experts now have serious doubts that Turkmenistan's reserves at all for all the rich promises of the President of the country has already made. Instead, Turkmenistan would probably keep open all options to drive up the price of gas but limited. brought order to be fed into Nabucco, it would have to the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan: In addition there is the Turkmen gas to Europe is another problem. For this, a pipeline would be needed, which would not only due to the unfavorable marine profile extremely expensive, but also on previously unregulated status of the Caspian Sea and the sharing of its waters far from the Teeth would be a hard nut. In the already long years of negotiations on these issues bordering Russia and Iran at the table ...

And just the third country, Azerbaijan, which initially appeared as a safe supplier for Nabucco, made shortly before the signing of the Agreement, the Nabucco project a spanner in the works. Until 29 June secured to the gas from Azerbaijan, Russia's largest gas field Shah-Deniz in the country . So that it can according to the experts from his residual reserves, at best, only 4 billion cubic meters gas supply of 31 billion cubic meters, is designed to Nabucco.

As if nothing had happened in Turkey, the longer planned signing was staged with great pomp. It has been temporarily hidden, that the Turks themselves are the problem with Nabucco. Again and again Erdogan threatened that Nabucco "at risk" is if the EU accession negotiations of Turkey should not move forward expeditiously. Also in the allocation of gas transported the Turks have their own ideas: 15% of the gas, the country intends Bisland for themselves, for the Europeans is not an acceptable condition. Not to

Despite the overwhelming problems of environmental concerns all, the EU desperately clings to the increasingly politicized Nabucco project. The Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict in 2006 and 2009 in certain parts of the EU have sparked panic reflexes which open now jerk reaction. Great was the general rate of shouting "Russia's stranglehold," which one would have to withdraw quickly. are at the forefront, especially senile cold warriors who make little effort to analyze the conflict with Ukraine, and instead prefer to bet on as "reliable" countries such as Turkey and Turkmenistan. 'Dependence on Russia "is a superficial Mar, that does not pass the closer look. Russia is just on the income from gas sales highly dependent and can supply disruptions and damage to reputation bad use. Rather, it is uncertain transit countries, are aware of the wrong political support of the West aware of when they require special conditions and pay bills, to be necessary simply to use of foreign gas. Pragmatic forces of the EU have recognized the problem and build with Russia along pipelines, the parasites on the Russian-European symbiosis away: German companies build the Nord Stream pipeline, while the Italian ENI, together with Gazprom South Stream drives pipeline .

From the Russian point of view the construction of Nabucco's done quietly. Vladimir Putin once said, that he had nothing against it, "If Europeans want to put their money strictly in sand." By lack of guarantees of profitability, the funding also shifted more and more to state coffers, as private investors, understandably, make an increasingly large arc around the project. If Europe until the fingers burned in a fiasco project needs to understand what it is to Russia as a supplier and how wrong its foreign energy policy, then it must just be so ... Until then, it Nabucco, as the Austrian political scientist Gerhard Mangott can put it, but at least as Showcase "use.

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Ambiguous restart

The Inauguration of Barack Obama was hailed enthusiastically in the United States and around the world, which in itself was not surprising - given the eight years of encrusted and rigid, neo-conservative leadership of George Bush with his numerous failures, crises, and dead ends, all made very tired. In Obama, who except for a striking campaign still vorzuweisen little, hopes for renewal and normalization were projected, which were sometimes so exaggerated and naive to think that after that necessarily had to use a disillusionment.

also for relations between the U.S. and Russia by many observers, a warming predicted after it cooled steadily over the last eight years and in August 2008 when Südossetienkrieg its negative climax came when the mood and the mutual media propaganda to the level of the cold war plummeted. Obama and his vice Joe Biden sent signals that America is interested in restarting the Russian-American relations, which analyzed political scientists as a promising and necessary decisions. But what about the substance? Whether the two countries is at the mountain of problems and contradictions may grant apart and do and whether concerns are the new U.S. Administration to revise the vanguard of a genuine policy of the last two decades, is more to see with doubt.

As a first practical sign of the "new course" in Washington is in the press "accidentally" got offer Obama on Russia to reconsider the planned U.S. missile defense system in Eastern Europe, if Russia is on the Iran issue behind America. Medvedev did, however, quickly realize that Russia is on such a little horse-trading interests. For good reason: for a nebulous waiver of a spongy, although provocative, project, its technical and financial terms, especially in light of the economic crisis is very doubtful in any case, Russia should destroy real beneficial relations with Iran in the long term, to later may face even with a resumption of rocket plans. The Americans keep to arrangements known only as long as they are tied to an ongoing consideration simultaneously, then they fill the vacuum that opens out again and provoke maximum possible without hardship, to gain excess weight. What is a benefit to the Americans be worth if it is established already irreversible? The credibility of this country is in the eyes of the Russians already heavily damaged after the NATO already shot ahead despite any protestations to the East after Iraq was invaded with trumped-up arguments and after America on one side the SALT II treaty on arms limitation atomic-scale dissolved. Since a sufficient change in the White House Administration not: the reputation of a country rightly subject to a certain continuity, especially since the foreign policy of America in previous decades demonstrated a choice of outputs almost independent continuity. The offer of the United States should be examined in the background as another substance-less sham offer, which serves the purpose to position itself in the eyes of world public opinion to be constructive rather superficial, while Russia will stand as a stubborn "Nyet" Sager.

Symbolically, there was also the first meeting between Foreign Minister Hillary Clinton and her Russian colleague Sergei Lavrov. To illustrate the supposed revival of relations, brought the American woman with a stylized red button to be on the stand in English and Russian Restart. The Russian word, however, there was a faux pas: instead Perezagruzka, equivalent to the English reload, there was a Peregruzka - an overload. The diplomat Lavrov had overlooked the memorable mistakes like when Clinton would not need to underline that the employees of the Department of State had made "every effort" to find the right word. When she wanted to know Lavrov, if they did it, had to admit this, that on the button is a bad word and explain its meaning. "We will not allow you to do that with our relationship," Clinton said in the "joke". To be a naive translation errors this is probably not, because when appropriate will have specialists in the U.S. State Department is the correct translation of the word probably found out. More likely is that we have witnessed a stupid show a la americaine, which will probably continue into the real politics.